WINE & SPIRITS: A scorching future
Sunday, January 28th, 2007Global warming is altering the world wine map. Bordeaux reds and
German whites may be better than ever, but what’s in store for
Champagne and Napa?
By Corie Brown
Times Staff Writer
8:24 PM PST, January 23, 2007
Imagine a world in which the best sparkling wines come from Surrey in
southern England, not Champagne. A world where Monterey Bay is home
to California’s best Cabernet Sauvignons and Sweden produces world-
class Rieslings.
It’s not science fiction. A growing number of climatologists are
warning that by the turn of the next century, such a radically
altered wine map could be the new reality. They say man-made
greenhouse gases warming the planet are expected to shift
viticultural regions toward the poles, cooler coastal zones and
higher elevations.
Burgundian Syrahs? Quite likely. Scientists say that, in 50 years,
Napa could be as hot as the Central Valley’s Lodi appellation is now.
Bordeaux is on track to have a climate similar to France’s southern
Languedoc region. Germany, on the other hand, will be producing
luscious red wines.
“I don’t think you can make a vineyard decision today based on
historical information,” says David Graves, one of the owners of Napa
Valley’s Saintsbury wines. “You have to factor in climate change.”
As he paces the floor at his Carneros winery, Graves explains that
vintners plant and tend their vineyards with an eye to a 50-year
horizon. Now the future seems unknowable, he says.
Wine is the canary in the climate-change coal mine, according to
climatologists. Even slight changes in climate can wreak havoc on
high-quality wine, making it particularly vulnerable to global
warming.
In young, dynamic wine regions like California, where the weather is
currently considered optimal, it is difficult to track global
warming’s effects. So many things are constantly changing. But the
research suggests that such regions may be at the edge of what is
ideal. Slight climate changes could be enough to push them over that
edge.
Meanwhile, in European wine regions that have struggled to ripen
grapes for centuries, global warming is a cause for celebration. Each
year in the last decade seems to have brought another “vintage of the
century.”
No question, says London-based wine critic Jancis Robinson, global
warming is changing wines. “Dry German wines now are seriously
delicious. English wines and Canadian wines have benefited.” On the
other hand, she says, wines from warmer regions including Spain and
Australia are suffering the rise in temperature.
“With wine, we can taste climate change,” says Gregory V. Jones, a
climatologist at Southern Oregon University who is a leading
researcher in the burgeoning field of wine-region climate studies and
the son of an Oregon vintner. “You can honestly argue that Bordeaux
is better off today. They can now consistently ripen their grapes.”
The year 2005 was the warmest recorded in the United States in the
150 years that good records have been maintained. And each of the
last nine years has been among the 25 warmest on record in the U.S.
Globally, each of the last 15 years has been in the top 25 hottest
years on record.
The acute environmental sensitivity of wine grapes separates
vineyards from other agricultural systems, says Dan Cayan, a climate
researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “If you believe
the viticulturists and their classifications of where premium wine
can, and cannot, be produced, and you impose the global warming
projections,” he says, “you find some areas would possibly be thrust
into a climate no longer suited to the grapes now grown there.”
Breaking tradition
THE wine world is scrambling to guard against disaster. In a stunning
bow to climate change, French wine regulators last month approved the
use of vineyard irrigation, reversing centuries of tradition to
rescue regions suddenly too hot for dry farming.
UC Davis scientists are breeding new strains of vines and root stocks
that can better survive extremes of heat and drought. Spanish
vintners are studying whether they can plant vineyards in the cooler
foothills of the Pyrenees. Belgium, Denmark and even Sweden are
jumping into viticulture.
The changes in traditional viticulture challenge the cherished French
notion of terroir — the predictable expression of soils, climate and
traditions in the grapes identified with a particular place —
ushering in a new era in wine.
“The research is clearly pointing to major long-term risks to an
industry that people in California care about,” says Chris Field,
director of the Carnegie Institution, Department of Global Ecology at
Stanford University. The question facing the wine industry, Field
says, is whether it will be a victim of global warming or “are they
going to assume a leadership role to ensure that their way of life is
sustainable?”
It’s a sensitive issue on which Robert P. Koch, president and chief
executive of the Wine Institute, the industry’s chief Washington
lobbyist, has kept a low profile. Careful not to get out in front of
his brother-in-law, President Bush, or the conservative wine
industry, Koch says the Wine Institute’s board is starting to discuss
its options.
President Bush declined in 2005 to sign the Kyoto Protocol, a United
Nations agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute
to global warming, signed by 169 other governments including the
developed nations of the world with the exception of Australia. Other
politicians deny the existence of global warming, Koch says,
mentioning Sen. James M. Inhofe (R.-Okla.), former chairman of the
Senate’s Committee on Environment and Public Works, who calls it
a “hoax.”
When pressed, Koch distances himself from both Bush and
Inhofe. “Grabbed in an aggressive manner, global warming is a
challenge that can be solved,” he says. Whether they like it or not,
Koch says, California vintners “recognize that we [the Wine
Institute] are on the cutting edge of this global environmental
issue.”
In France, the projected climate changes threaten the very definition
of wine, says Bernard Seguin, a climatologist with the French
National Agronomy Institute. Each one degree increase in temperature
in France is equivalent to moving 200 kilometers (or 124 miles)
north, he says. By the end of the century, with current warming
predictions, the north coast of France will be experiencing weather
that today is common for the south of France. Burgundy will feel like
the Côtes du Rhône, he says, and Bordeaux will make wines that
resemble those the Languedoc produces today.
Up to this point, global warming has been a boon for France, Seguin
says. Rising temperatures have produced wines with higher sugars and
alcohol levels and lower acids that are very popular.
“Our weather now is perfect,” says Jean-Guillaume Prats, the renowned
chief executive of Château Cos d’Estournel, a second-growth Bordeaux
house in St. Estèphe. “Global warming has changed the style of wine
we make to be a rounder, a more forward wine.”
Ocean protection?
BUT what happens if Bordeaux becomes too warm?
That is not possible, Prats says. “We are Bordeaux.” The region is
protected by its proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, he says. Any
further changes in temperature can be managed by technology and,
perhaps, a little irrigation, he says. “We will learn from
California.”
Michel Chapoutier, a celebrated Hermitage producer in the northern
Rhône, disagrees. Global warming may be making his wines more
popular, but he believes it has come at a price.
Traditionally, the grapes in his vineyards could be harvested with
the sugars and other flavors ripening simultaneously, he says, with
alcohol levels averaging 12%. Today, he says, the sugars arrive too
quickly, before the other flavors. Chapoutier says he must leave his
grapes hanging longer on the vine waiting for full ripeness, which
results in alcohol levels averaging 14%. To a California vintner,
this might seem acceptable, but to Chapoutier, it is evidence of a
buildup of greenhouse gases in the air and a warming climate.
“I’m nervous about the future,” Chapoutier says. “Yes, we have more
and more good vintages now, but we have to choose between vegetal
wines or ones that taste like jam.”
“The old system of wine production in Europe, the notion of terroir,
is now questionable,” Seguin says. “We must either do things to make
the old system adapt to the new climate, striving to keep the
classical qualities of wine by making changes in how we manage
vineyards and make wine. Or, we must become like the New World,
changing the vineyards to grow whatever grape variety is right for
that climate and planting vineyards in new places.”
The heat wave in Europe in 2003 sounded the alarm, Seguin says,
becoming the example of the future. “Those are very different wines.
Not bad wines, but very different,” he says. “It made it possible to
move from thinking about global warming to doing something about it.”
And California? Jones’ research shows that 50 years ago, the Central
Valley’s Lodi region had temperatures on par with what Napa
experiences today. If current warming trends continue, in another 50
years Napa’s climate could be as hot as Lodi’s is today. And the
Central Valley could be too hot to grow any kind of wine grapes. In
2049, the regions most suitable for high-quality wine production,
according to Jones, may dot a narrow strip of the coast.
Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Purdue Climate Change
Research Center, projects that by the end of the century, human-
driven climate warming could reduce the areas suitable for wine
production in the U.S. by 81%. Within those territories, optimal
regions for producing the highest quality wines would be half what
they are today.
Diffenbaugh anticipates an increase in the frequency of heat spikes.
Extremely hot days (95 degrees Fahrenheit or higher) in California’s
existing wine regions could occur between 30 to 50 times more often
each year by the end of this century. Research into increased heat
spikes in Europe’s wine regions, he says, indicates a similar
increase in the number of extremely hot days.
Not everyone is buying the doom and gloom. Some of Graves’ Napa
neighbors believe that scientists are exaggerating the risks. Napa’s
geography, they say, protects it from climate change. And Sonoma’s
proximity to the coast will keep it cool. That’s assuming, of course,
the oceans are immune from warming.
“I don’t think anyone is trying to deny global warming,” says Jim
Verhey, a director and manager of Silverado WineGrowers, which owns
200,000 acres in Napa Valley, Sonoma, Monterey and Lodi. “But we
believe that the marine influence from the San Francisco Bay mediates
the effects on Napa Valley. We believe we haven’t seen changes in
Napa’s temperatures.”
It is tempting to speculate that the increasingly higher alcohol
levels of California wines are the result of a warming climate. But,
according to Jones and other scientists who have studied the
relationship of global warming and wine, that’s difficult to prove.
California vintners have altered their viticulture practices during
the last two decades, increasing the time that grapes hang on the
vine. This increased exposure of the fruit to the sun has raised
sugar levels, which raises alcohol levels. How much of the higher
alcohol levels are due to longer hang time, and how much to rising
temperatures? It is impossible to know, they say.
“Our parameters for ripeness have changed,” says Paul Hobbs, a
winemaker well-known for his ripe, powerful wines. He no longer even
tests for sugar levels, he says. By concentrating instead on the
phenolic development, referring to the other grape flavors, he finds
himself among the last to harvest in Napa. “I farm completely
differently than I did 17 years ago,” he says. “I can’t see any
effects from global warming on my grapes.”
While Hobbs does believe the global climate is changing, he doesn’t
believe that, on average, Napa is warmer. Still, “I’ve seen more heat
spikes, absolutely. If that is an indication of global warming, then
yes, even in cool vintages we have them,” he says.
Jones studied viticultural climate data from 1948 to 2004 and found
an increase in average growing-season temperatures worldwide of 2.3
degrees. Night temperatures warmed more dramatically than day
temperatures, reducing the swing between high and low temperatures
that is desirable for producing high-quality wine.
Longer growing seasons
WORLDWIDE, he found higher temperatures during ripening, less frost,
and longer growing seasons (from 20 to 40 days longer in Europe, up
to 90 days longer in Napa Valley). Southern Hemisphere climate
changes were less pronounced than in the Northern Hemisphere, due to
the moderating effect of the higher ratio of ocean to land mass.
Jones believes those trends will continue during the next 50 years
with worldwide average growing-season temperatures increasing an
additional 2 to 3.5 degrees. Greater warming is projected for
southern France, parts of eastern Washington and Central California.
Temperatures in Spain and Portugal could increase more than 5
degrees, he says, which would make all but the high-altitude
viticulture extremely difficult.
Those projections have set off alarms in Spain, says Pancho Campo,
president of the Wine Academy of Spain. He organized the first World
Conference on Global Warming and Wine last March in Barcelona,
attended by more than 100 scientists, journalists, and winemakers. A
second conference is set for February 2008. “In Napa, it appears that
a lot of very rich people may have sunk a lot of money in the wrong
place. We’re suffering the same thing here in Spain,” Campo says. “We
had to drag the growers and vintners in to addressing global warming.
Now, six months after the conference, it’s unbelievable how attitudes
have changed.”
Miguel Torres, one of Spain’s leading vintners, made headlines when
he announced he was mapping soils of the lower slopes of the
Pyrenees, 25 miles closer to the mountains than where his vineyards
now are planted. “Last year was the hottest vintage in the history of
the Spanish wine industry,” Campo says. “Everyone is very concerned.
It’s starting to touch their pockets.”
Hans-Rainer Schultz, a climatologist at Germany’s Geisenheim
Institute whose studies corroborate Jones’ predictions, says it is
difficult to motivate people to be concerned about change when, so
far, it has been beneficial. “The coolest climates are feeling the
effects first — France, Germany, Austria — and it’s been positive,”
he says. How else can you explain lush red wines from Austria?
“In the Mosel Valley, growers were allowed to add water to the wines
until the early 1980s to reduce acidity. They could add sugar as
well. It was very controversial when they stopped those practices
because our wines needed those additives to be competitive, to be
consistent,” Schultz says.
“Today, no one would want to add these things,” he says. “We have
trouble maintaining our acids. It is no longer difficult to get the
sugar content up. In fact, we worry that our alcohol levels are too
high. We haven’t had a bad vintage since 1987, and the reason is
global warming.”
Now, Schultz says, “everyone is happy with the changes. It used to be
that 4 or 5 vintages out of 10 were marginal. It’s why we made sweet
wines, to mask the sharp acidity. Now we have less problems.”
There is growing concern, however, that Germany may be getting too
warm. “Riesling, in a warm climate, you get the kerosene, petroleum
character. That’s not what consumers are looking for in young, dry
Rieslings. Now we get that character very fast, instead of after two
or three years of age in the bottle,” Schultz says.
So, like David Graves in Napa Valley, German vintners are struggling
with questions. Should they plant the grapes that their fathers and
grandfathers did, or is it time to look south for guidance?
Riesling, Pinot Gris and Pinot Noir have always been suitable for
Germany. But in 20 to 50 years, Schultz’s research indicates that
Merlot and Cabernet Franc may be more appropriate.
